Following the recent fiscal event led by UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, economic forecasts are indicating a potential uplift for the nation’s economy. Chancellor Hunt announced a significant fiscal loosening package totaling £18 billion, with measures that include a two-point decrease in national insurance and the introduction of permanent full expensing for capital investments.
Deutsche Bank analysts predict that these changes will lead the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to revise its government spending projections upwards for 2024, which could result in an improved growth forecast for that year. This comes against a backdrop of near-zero growth expectations set by the Bank of England over a two-year period.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) offers a more optimistic outlook, projecting growth rates of 0.7% and 1.4% over the coming years. The OBR also estimates that Chancellor Hunt’s policies will provide a notable long-term output boost of 0.3%, a significant figure given the current challenges in accelerating UK growth rates. This enhancement was underscored by Richard Hughes, who acknowledged the difficulties in boosting the country’s economic expansion.
However, these fiscal changes have raised concerns about inflation, leading analysts from Capital Economics to suggest that interest rate cuts by the Bank of England might be delayed until late 2024. This adjustment in expectations marks a shift from earlier predictions of rate cuts in the first half of 2024, as indicated in the Bank’s February forecast. The current interest rate stands at 5.25%, with the timing of any reductions now uncertain due to these inflationary pressures.
In summary, Chancellor Hunt’s £18 billion fiscal package aimed at tax relief could potentially lead to an uplift in UK economic growth forecasts for 2024, despite ongoing concerns about inflation and interest rate adjustments.
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