The US dollar experienced a second consecutive day of decline against the Mexican peso, trading around 17.18, as investors weighed a mix of US economic data. Treasury bond yields climbed following an increase in US one-year inflation expectations to 4.5%, according to the University of Michigan (UoM) report, which kept its five-year forecasts stable at 3.2%. In contrast, the market digested a significant drop in US Durable Goods Orders, which fell by more than expected at -5.4%, and a lower-than-anticipated Jobless Claims figure of 209,000.
The economic outlook for Mexico showed signs of moderation as Retail Sales growth slowed to 2.3% year-on-year in September, amidst the Bank of Mexico’s (Banxico) aggressive interest rate policy, which stands at 11.25%. This tightening of monetary policy is aimed at controlling inflation but may also be dampening consumer spending.
As US markets remain closed for Thanksgiving today, attention shifts to Mexico’s economic indicators. Analysts are eyeing October’s growth estimates, which are expected to remain robust at 2.9%. Additionally, the upcoming November inflation figures from Mexico will be closely watched.
Investors are also looking ahead to Friday when the US is scheduled to release its S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI numbers. There is an anticipation that these indices might show potential decreases, reflecting broader economic trends and possibly influencing market dynamics further.
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