Wall Street Brunch: CPI With A Twist Due

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The July CPI is expected to show a rise in annual retail inflation. (0:17) AMC and Cisco among those reporting earnings. (1:57) Nvidia reportedly getting licenses to export H20 to China. (3:34)

Inflation is back in focus this week, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics releasing July consumer price index before the bell on Tuesday.

Economists expect headline CPI to have risen 0.3% on the month, with the annual rate ticking up to 2.8%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is seen up 0.2% for the month, with annual core inflation rising to 3%.

Wells Fargo economists say: “It’s still the early innings when it comes to answering the question: Who will bear the brunt of tariffs? Will it be the end-consumer, domestic sellers or foreign exporters?”

“That said, growing consumer fatigue is making it more difficult to raise prices in general,” they added. “While we continue to expect inflation to pick up, we’re also not expecting it to ratchet higher over the second half of the year. We look for core inflation to return to around a 3% annual pace in the fourth quarter.”

This round of retail inflation data comes with a twist, though, in the wake of President Donald Trump firing BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer.

Trump had said he would name a new commissioner in three or four days, but hasn’t yet. And there is some concern about what might happen if the numbers come in hot, displeasing Trump.

William Beach, McEntarfer’s Trump-appointed predecessor, told the Wall Street Journal this is “the most important selection in the history of the BLS” and that to “heal this, you would have to have an appointment of a person whose reputation for honesty and integrity is beyond question. You would have to have a unanimous vote in the Senate for that confirmation.”

On Friday, July retail sales figures are due amid worries of weakening consumer spending. The forecast is for a 0.5% rise, with sales ex-autos up 0.3%.

“We’ve highlighted the sharp drop in the year-ago pace of discretionary services, but discretionary goods purchases have also slipped the past three months after a pop in March,” Wells Fargo said. “We suspect the moderating job market and concern over tariff-induced price pressure has led consumers to grow more choosy.”

Looking to earnings, the calendar continues to thin out with just 8 S&P 500 companies issuing numbers.

FactSet says that for Q2 (with 90% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 81% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 81% of S&P 500 companies have also reported a positive revenue surprise.

Among the highlights, former meme darling AMC (AMC) will report Monday, while Dow component Cisco (CSCO) weighs in on Wednesday.

Wall Street expects AMC to post a loss per share of -$0.08 on revenue of $1.34 billion. Analysts are positive on a recovery, thanks to a consistent release slate over the coming quarters. Industry ticket sales in the U.S. soared 37%, according to data from Box Office Mojo, fueled by the success of flicks including “A Minecraft Movie,” “Thunderbolts,” “Sinners,” and Disney’s “Lilo & Stitch.” The stock caught a Quant Rating upgrade to Hold in late July thanks to strong earnings revisions.

Cisco is expected to report fiscal Q4 EPS of $0.98 on revenue of $14.63 billion. The company has consistently surpassed Wall Street expectations. Upside has been driven by a cyclical recovery in core enterprise networking business and a compelling narrative around cloud and AI markets. Headwinds include challenging order growth comps and continued underperformance in Security and Observability segments. Given the CFO transition in late July, analysts say the probability increases that there’s a more conservative guide versus expected for fiscal year 2026.

Also on the earnings calendar:

On Monday, AMC is joined by Barrick Mining (B), Oklo (OKLO), and Plug Power (PLUG).

CoreWeave (CRWV), eTORO (ETOR) and Paysafe (PSFE) report Tuesday.

Alvotech (ALVO) issues numbers along with Cisco on Wednesday.

Applied Materials (AMAT) is due up Thursday.

In the news this weekend the U.S. Commerce Department has started to issue licenses to Nvidia (NVDA) allowing it to export its H20 graphic processing units to China, according to the FT.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang last month said the chipmaker had begun to file for the applications to sell the H20 artificial intelligence chips again and that the U.S. government had provided assurances that they would be approved. The Commerce Department’s move came two days after Huang visited the White House on Wednesday.

And at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s request, Vinay Prasad is returning to the role of director of the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, just 10 days after departing the agency.

Prasad left the FDA on July 30, with media reports saying his departure appeared to have been around backlash related to the U.S. drug regulator’s handling of several deaths potentially linked to Sarepta Therapeutics’ (SRPT) Duchenne muscular dystrophy treatment Elevidys.

And for income investors, Apple (AAPL) and Ford (F) go ex-dividend on Monday. Apple pays out on August 14 and Ford pays out on Sept. 2.

Target (TGT) goes ex-dividend Wednesday, paying out on Sept. 1.

TJX (TJX) goes ex-dividend on Thursday, with a Sept. 4 payout date.